Edition #17
November 9, 2026
THE TOP LINE
Committed… until they weren’t
Students put down deposits and never show up. Seat licenses pay once and then they’re gone. Commitment is today’s theme in CFO.ticker. Three more things worth weighing:
ONE BIG IDEA
One-time money isn’t operating money. Fitch’s Ben Munguia calls seat license proceeds supportive but non-recurring, even as Manchester United weighs them to help fund a $2B Old Trafford redevelopment.
ONE NUMBER
$650M+
What DraftKings is pouring into prediction markets, cutting its adjusted EBITDA outlook to $175M to $275M.
ONE QUOTE
“I used to think May 1 was the finish-line, decision day, and now, almost in some cases, I think it’s like halftime.”
— Ana Homayoun, Academic Adviser, on enrollment melt
ALSO INSIDE → The Dumonts take the Mavericks · A phased Liverpool takeover · Fox closes on Roku
COMMITMENT ISSUES
Fitch: Seat licenses help, but they only pay once
Fitch Ratings Global Head of Sports Ben Munguia analyzed the expansion of Personal Seat Licenses to offset venue construction costs, contrasting the established NFL model with emerging European soccer adoption. The NFL built the industry blueprint with 22 of 32 franchises utilizing the structure to secure hundreds of millions in upfront capital, relying on an exemption that shields seat license proceeds from the league's 34% ticket revenue-sharing requirement. European clubs historically avoided the practice due to relegation risks and fan price sensitivity, but rising construction costs have forced a change in thinking. For instance, Manchester United is exploring PSLs to fund its $2B Old Trafford redevelopment, while FC Barcelona and Real Madrid recently generated immediate liquidity by selling 475 and 300 VIP seat licenses, respectively, to third-party investors. Munguia:
“The actual benefit of the PSL proceeds is still largely short-term and can’t be substituted for ongoing operating cash flow from other sources, like contractually obligated income, when looking at long-term debt service capacity. ... Fitch would generally view PSLs as a supportive but non-recurring part of the capital structure instead of a substitute for resilient operating revenue.”
Colleges fight back against “melt”
Colleges are deploying new retention strategies to combat “melt,” a growing trend of students placing deposits but failing to enroll in the fall, according to The Wall Street Journal's Roshan Fernandez, who explains institutions face escalating competition for committed applicants following a 2019 Justice Department antitrust settlement that allows post-May 1 recruiting. Students submitted an average of 1.4 deposits for the class of 2025, up from 1.0 in 2019, per a report from consultant EAB. Georgia State reduced its melt rate from 22% in 2024 to 7% this year by simplifying registration communications, while Marist achieved a 7% rate by introducing June orientations. Whittier College experienced a 17% melt rate, losing approximately 40 students in August. Academic adviser Ana Homayoun on the consumer mentality pushing families to secure multiple commitments to maintain financial aid leverage:
“Let me ‘optionality’ all of this till the very last minute. I used to think May 1 was the finish-line, decision day, and now, almost in some cases, I think it’s like halftime.”
Net tuition keeps falling at public colleges
Inflation-adjusted tuition and fees continue to decline across public colleges and universities, according to a College Board report, which found that between the 2016-17 and 2026-27 academic years, average rates dropped 12% for in-district community college students and 8% for in-state attendees at public four-year universities, while pricing at private nonprofits remained flat. During the current academic year, first-time, full-time in-state students at public four-year institutions paid an estimated average of $1,920 in net tuition and fees—down from a peak of $4,600 in 2012-13—as the vast majority of undergraduates nationwide utilized financial assistance to offset published sticker prices of $12,290. College Board VP of Research Jessica Howell:
“About 70% of full-time undergraduate students receive grant aid that reduces the actual cost of attending college. Families need clear net price information early in the college application process.”
WHO CALLS THE SHOTS?
Higher ed pushes back on an IRS tax-exemption rule
More than 40 higher ed advocacy groups submitted public comments opposing a proposed Treasury Department and IRS rule that threatens to revoke the tax-exempt status of private, nonprofit colleges found to discriminate based on race or ethnicity. The National Association of College and University Business Officers warns that losing federal tax exemptions would deter donor contributions and undermine institutional financial stability, and Association of Independent California Colleges and Universities President Kristen F. Soares asserts the rule “offers no clear safe harbors, notice-and-cure period, corrective action process, or intermediate sanctions before an institution’s tax-exempt status is put at risk. It also leaves fundamental enforcement questions unanswered: Would the IRS independently determine whether discrimination occurred or rely on another agency or a court? What evidence and standards would govern? What notice would an institution receive, and what opportunity would it have to respond, correct an alleged deficiency, or seek administrative and judicial review?”
Enrollment leaders trade jargon for plain language
Higher education administrators gathered at the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers semicentennial conference in Baltimore to address the evolving landscape of strategic enrollment management. Inside Higher Ed's Johanna Alonso notes the panels focused on offsetting the impending demographic cliff by targeting non-traditional student populations, integrating artificial intelligence for data analysis, and eliminating friction from the application process to prevent summer melt. Panelists from Indiana noted that online and adult learners require immediate admissions decisions rather than traditional timelines, while the National University of Health Sciences student liaison Danny Hodorowski said the school requires one-on-one meetings with every admitted student to smooth the onboarding experience. To reduce confusion surrounding financial aid, institutions are replacing complex industry jargon with straightforward marketing language, and George Washington VP/Dean of Enrollment Management Jay Goff explained the rationale for advertising "tuition promises" for families earning under $150K:
“Families do not know what ‘demonstrated unmet need’ is. ... It was so unclear and confusing that it really made no sense to use that language.”
The Dumonts take control of the Mavericks
Sivan Dumont and Patrick Dumont acquired Miriam Adelson's shares of the Dallas Mavericks to secure a 69% controlling stake, leaving former majority owner Mark Cuban with a 27% share, according to ESPN's Tim MacMahon, who notes the acquisition agreement allows Dumont to purchase an additional 20% from Cuban at the original $3.5B valuation. Presently, outgoing CEO Rick Welts and incoming President Ethan Casson are overseeing an eight-figure renovation of the team's practice facility and preparing to build a new arena on a 104-acre tract at the former Valley View Mall site by 2031. Dumont, who also serves as CEO of Las Vegas Sands, on the upcoming venue:
“The Dumont family is really committed to building what we hope is the best arena in the NBA, a really significant investment in the city that will help create the new 40-year home for the Dallas Mavericks, a great experience for our fans and inspire our team to win championships. That's really what we're focused on. We had the opportunity, and we're really excited about it.”
A Bezos-backed group buys into Liverpool
1892 Holdings, backed by Jeff Bezos' K5 Global and Facebook Co-Founder Eduardo Saverin, agreed to purchase a 38% stake in Liverpool from Fenway Sports Group for over £2B (roughly $2.6B to $2.7B), according to The Athletic's Simon Hughes. The agreement includes a built-in option for the consortium to increase its claim to 69% or execute a 100% buyout to take full control of the club within 12 months, pending approval from the Independent Football Regulator. Hughes notes the phased takeover model allows the incoming investors to acclimate to the organization before assuming majority control. Meanwhile, FSG is pursuing other assets, emerging as a bidder for the Cadillac Formula 1 team, which carries a valuation exceeding $3B.
YOUR TAKE
Would seat licenses have a place in your department's facility funding plan?
Results to be shared in a future edition.
MAKING GROWTH PAY
CFOs need to own the “I” in AI ROI
CFOs face increasing pressure from corporate boards to accelerate artificial intelligence deployments, but CFO Brew’s Demi Lawrence notes that successful integration hinges on clean data and strict pilot programs. For instance, Accordion Managing Director of AI Strategy Ash Pembroke established an eight- to 14-week average timeline from ideation to release, though Head of Strategic Finance Mitchel Nakken noted clean data environments can shorten the runway to a single month. Cuesta Partners Co-Founder Tom Derhake urged executives to establish pilot testing periods before launching full rollouts for tools like ChatGPT or Claude:
“CFOs also need to own the ‘I’ in ROI, which now means understanding and estimating usage-based costs, like token consumption, that grow with adoption. In the end, the goal isn’t to report on AI as a side project. It’s to weave AI into the metrics the CFO already owns, so it shows up in margin, growth, and cash flow.”
Companies plan 4% to 5% price increases for 2027
Companies across the software, industrial, and business services sectors plan to implement price increases averaging 4% to 5% in 2027, according to a BlueRidge Partners survey of 255 C-suite executives. CFO Dive's David McCann explains the pricing adjustments will account for roughly 11% of total revenue growth next year for the surveyed firms, which generate between $100M and $5B annually across the U.S. and Europe. The data also indicates software companies anticipate a median revenue growth of 12%, while business services and industrials project gains of 8% and 6%, respectively. Industrial firms specifically plan a median 4% price increase despite facing estimated cost of goods sold spikes of 5.5% in the U.S. and 4.3% in Europe. BlueRidge Partners adds:
“Many business services and industrial companies estimate a bigger increase in 2027 costs than they plan to cover through price increases, which would cause a margin decline if more aggressive pricing actions aren’t taken.”
DraftKings guts its outlook to fund prediction markets
DraftKings slashed its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook from a range of $700M to $900M down to $175M to $275M to account for a $650M to $700M investment in its prediction markets business, according to The Wall Street Journal's Katherine Hamilton. The company also lowered its full-year revenue guidance to between $6.35B and $6.55B, triggering a 24% drop in after-hours trading that pushed shares to $17.81. The revised outlook follows a third-quarter earnings report showing a $468.7M loss—up from $256.8M a year earlier—despite a 16% revenue increase to $1.33B. DraftKings plans to spend another $175M to $225M on the prediction business during the fourth quarter to combat advertising cost surges driven by new entrants like Kalshi and Polymarket. The company projects 2027 revenue between $7.35B and $7.75B, with prediction markets expected to contribute up to $750M in sales.
Fox closes its $22B Roku deal early
Fox closed its $22B acquisition of Roku ahead of the projected 2027 timeline, and Variety's Todd Spangler reports the transaction, structured at $160 per share with $14.2B in cash, establishes the newly formed Fox Digital Platforms division co-chaired by Paul Cheesbrough and Roku founder Anthony Wood. Fox anticipates $400M in annualized cost synergies within two years of closing, and Spangler notes the deal expands the Fox’s digital footprint across an open ecosystem of more than 100M households. During the first nine months of 2026, Roku generated $4.1B in sales on 23% revenue growth, driven by advertising (49%) and subscriptions (40%), alongside a Q3 gross profit of $649M (up 24%) and net income of $183M. Wood:
“We started Roku more than two decades ago to give people a better way to watch TV, and that mission doesn’t change today. What does change is our reach and resources. Fox has a deep respect for Roku’s culture and wholly shares our commitment to staying open to every content partner.”
THE BOTTOM LINE · MOST CLICKED LAST EDITION
The Braves post a record $324.6M quarter. How the Truist Park development helped push revenue up, and why baseball-side costs climbed even faster. READ »
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(Posted from most recent over the last 30 days).
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